Strong economy likely to keep Democrats from winning midterms


They are waiting to see how his record stands up in these elections and hoping to find their bearings again.

With a characteristic mix of folksiness, bombast and sometimes cruel humour, he says voters must choose between his stewardship of a booming economy and what he claims would be the Democrats' extreme-left policies.

All five Senate vacancies are Republican-held seats, including two in suburban Philadelphia and one each based in suburban Pittsburgh, and Blair and York counties. That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP.

"Even if I'm registering people who are going to vote for the other party, they're seeing us out here in our hats, and that's what's important, all the little interactions and conversations we're having", Kolkovich said.

Conversely, Missouri and Nevada are both toss-up races which could go either way.

The party holding the White House has lost seats in the House in all but two elections in modern history.

Wake me up when we know who wins the White House in another two years.

Although it's not a high-drama presidential election year, Mr. Trump is acknowledging more and more in the final days of this campaign that his agenda is hanging in the balance. If the map were anywhere close to neutral, and the environment were as it is, Democrats would be virtually guaranteed a House takeover right now.

The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied.

Other big races are Republican Pete Stauber's bid to flip a House Democratic stronghold in Minnesota, while Democrats in Florida and Georgia are aiming to become the states' first African-American governors.

Pollsters suggest Democrats may win the 23 seats they need to take over the House of Representatives, and possibly 15 or so extra seats.

Female college graduates in well-off suburbs are in the spotlight because many are voicing disgust with Trump's aggressive rhetoric, and their votes could decide tight races in Democrats' favor. Democrats are favored to win more House seats than they now have and they need an overall gain of 23 to retake the House majority. And 76 percent of people earning less than $30,000 say they aren't better off.

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"I think the Senate will be too much of an uphill climb". Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota.

At present, the polls indicate the Democrats will only be able to reclaim the lower house.

In the 17th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Cheri Bustos will defeat Republican Bill Fawell, 60 percent to 40 percent. Bloomberg photo by Aaron P. Bernstein. Abrams' opponent, Republican candidate Brian Kemp, is also Georgia's secretary of state, tasked with overseeing the state's elections. "If you look at his final travel schedule the two things that stick out on your map is Florida and OH, not just because of Senate races but because of gubernatorial races". Looking exclusively at Trump's approval rating, you would expect them to win up to 41, but allowance needs to be made for the Republicans' recent gerrymandering of district boundaries, which should help them hang on to around five seats that would otherwise flip. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, has a 49 in 50 chance of being re-elected, says FiveThirtyEight.

The outcome is clouded by the dramatically different landscape between the House and Senate.

Trump's approval rating is also a concern for Republicans. Political messages that deviate from stoking fear hold no charm for Trump.

How it would happen: Speaking of small but substantial possibilities, that's what Republicans have when it comes to holding the House.

One day before polls closed, Trump arrived in perennial battleground OH with further stops planned in IN and Missouri to boost Republican turnout in elections that could determine the path of his presidency. Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann, a Republican state senator, will take from 5 to 7 percent of normally GOP votes away from Rauner.

In this week's state legislative elections, all eyes are on the the state Senate, where Republicans are at risk of losing control of the chamber.

What it would mean: Pundit chaos. If Rohrabacher, a Trump ally, loses his seat it could signal Trump's drag on the GOP even when he's not on the ballot. "We expect that to occur in 2019".

So why is the Senate not going the same way as the House?

Democrats also lead in terms of fund-raising, by roughly $1 billion to $700 million. It's really hard to rule anything out, given we're in uncharted territory here, and that all of our previous assumptions about how these things work have been called into question.